Jeremy Gilbert, former chief petroleum engineer of BP, says Peak Oil has happened or is happening now

February 14th, 2011 by Richard Lord

Jeremy Gilbert, former Chief Petroleum Engineer for BP says “Peak Oil, I believe, probably is happening as we speak or has happened.”

Jeremy Gilbert believes the technology is available to extract oil from remote and deep-sea locations but he doubts that the investment is available.

“We are seeing fields which are more difficult to develop.  We are seeing fields which are more expensive to develop but we’re seeing an economic climate which makes it virtually impossible for companies to commit to funds on projects which won’t deliver a return for 12 to 15 years.”

Sadad al-Husseini, former VP of Saudi Aramco and now an oil industry consultant, doesn’t believe that OPEC has the capacity to greatly increase production.  “There is no rabbit out of the hat.”

“Russia targeted 12 million barrels per day only a few years ago.  It hasn’t reached ten.” “Mexico, a major producer is in decline.  North Sea – severe decline.”

Chris, Skrebowski, Consulting Editor of Petroleum Review Magazine, thinks that maximum oil production capacity cannot really go further than the 1992 to 1994 range.  “What gives you the peak is that depletion is eating away at the capacity you have got all the time.  Your new capacity is coming in to off-set that but to go higher it has got to more than off-set it by a useful amount, and it simply becomes mathematically improbably that you can drive it out to these 100 million barrels per day or plus figures that are still being banded about.”

Sadad al-Husseini says “the bottom-line is that there are not enough projects, there is not enough new capacity coming on-line within the next five to six years to make-up for global declines, and that’s assuming a very moderate level of declines.”

“Even at these modest decline rates we are basically going to see a shortage of capacity within two to three years.” “We are being lulled by this excess capacity currently, which is more to do with lower demand than anything to do with supply, so yes, we do have a problem in the near term.  In the longer term it is even worse.”

1 Response to “Jeremy Gilbert, former chief petroleum engineer of BP, says Peak Oil has happened or is happening now”

  1. Spec

    “Chris, Skrebowski, Consulting Editor of Petroleum Review Magazine, thinks that maximum oil production capacity cannot really go further than the 1992 to 1994 range.”

    This is WRONG. He meant 92 to 94 million barrels per day as the top peak production value.

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